re: #133 KGxvi

I know that’s the theory, but I’ve posted turnout and popular vote totals in presidential elections, and the “low turn out favors Republicans, high turnout favors Democrats” doesn’t really seem to hold up. (see comment ). For example, 2012 had a lower turn out than 2004, yet Obama won by the same percentage that W did in those years.

And it’s actually kind of difficult to find mid-term turn out numbers. So it’s hard to compare, but it does appear that 2010 saw slightly higher turnout than 2006, and Dems won the popular vote in the House 52-44 in 2006 but lost by basically the same margin in 2010. Targeted turnout is probably more important in the mid-terms than overall turnout.

I think this is a new thing election. All indications are this turnout could equal a presidential election.

And again with my example…the numbers simply favor the Democrats not only by numbers, but by the passions for this one election influencing those numbers.

All the past numbers are correct and they reflect what you show, but those are what I would consider America’s typical ‘past’ voting trends.

This election is looking like it may be the hoped for “future’ election trend, at least maybe for one generation. There are huge new voters. and the youth vote does appear to be up especially in urban areas. More people of color also joining in.

Bigger independent numbers, many leaving the Trumpublicans add in too. Chances are good they will be motivated just because they were motivated to tell the Republicans to piss off. They want to send a message.

Those new independents erode the Republican numbers and fortify the Democrats. That is new too, and it is somewhat aimed at ALL Republicans all over these many races all due to one bad president.