Some notes on the “poll” about the shutdown that Trump will see from his handlers from Joan McCarter:

Never mind the tanking approval rating, the dramatic downward shift in the public’s mood on the economy, or the amazing anybody-but-Trump early 2020 polling: Team Trump has their own numbers, and that’s what they’re showing Individual 1.

Trump’s campaign manager, Brad Parscale, commissioned a poll to show Trump how he fared with the shutdown. But rather than, you know, run a national poll, he had the pollsters go to 10 congressional districts that Trump won in 2016 but flipped to Democrats in 2018, in what was basically a fluke of a wave election. They see that these numbers “bolstered Trump” in the shutdown, but under the hood it’s some pretty damned weak sauce. For example, Trump doesn’t jump into majority support in these polls, getting a plurality of 48-49 percent. Also, a plurality blames him for the shutdown!

A plurality does support him on the border wall, but what’s fascinating is that after reading a full four paragraphs of pro-wall arguments, there is hardly any movement among voters. Just 33 percent still stand with Trump on the wall! That is up from 27 percent, but 41 percent still say Trump needs to work with House Speaker Pelosi to find a compromise on border security.

This is the poll that they’re using to convince Trump he needs to hold the line on his wall and keep threatening another shutdown. And knowing Trump, it’ll work.