From FiveThirtyEight….

The Cook Report’s PVI (a bit more weighted to the 2012 election result than Harry’s adjusted partisanship) pegs Montana’s House seat at a score of R+11. That, more or less, means we think a Republican should win about 61 percent of the vote in a “neutral” political environment. When all is said and done, it’s likely Gianforte will be in the low to mid 50s. Keep in mind, the median House seat is only R+3, so, as Harry said, Democrats don’t need to win these kinds of districts to win the House. They need to over-perform by about 4 points on average, and Quist is on track to do that.