re: #178 NO SMOCKING GUN!

Nate Silver dropped his election model, and Trump has a horrifyingly high 29% chance of winning, about the same odds he faced in 2016. It should be zero, of course, but his cult of ignorant white racists are coccooned from reality by Fox News and Facebook. fivethirtyeight.com

The reasoning is simply that there’s almost 100 days before the election, so it’s accounting for that amount of unknown unknowns in some way. Apparently, if the election were held today Biden would have a 93% chance of winning under this model.