re: #181 Ming

I can see 2 things the Republicans have (possibly) going for them:

(1) As you mention, the fragility of the economy. E.g. it wouldn’t take much Middle East “turmoil” to send the price of gasoline way up in the US. If the recovery doesn’t continue in 2012, Obama will, unfortunately, get a lot of the blame. (No wonder the Rpeublicans are in no hurry to extend the Social Security tax cut past February 29.)

(2) One other point: there *may* be an “enthusiasm gap”. I hope I’m wrong about this. But I sometimes read about how people who were super-excited about Obama in 2008 still like the guy, but aren’t super-enthusiastic like they used to be. Here’s what scares me: the Republicans may be counting on their extreme rhetoric to really bring out “their” voters in droves. Even if only 30% of the population think Obama is an evil foreign sekrit atheist Muslim, if the voter turnout for those 30% is very high, it could make the difference.

The Republicans may see voter turnout of specific voting blocs as the only way they can win. This *may* explain why their statements are so extreme, so often.

On the other hand, maybe they really believe what they’re saying?

I think any republican enthusiasm gap edge is a myth. Their primary and caucus turnout, as as rule, has been dismal.