re: #177 goddamnedfrank

In the meantime these polls are inflicting irreparable damage to Trump’s fundraising and GOTV efforts. I also suspect that just like 2012 the polls are significantly underestimating minority turnout, especially because the conventional wisdom among (mostly white) pollsters is that with Obama off the ticket black voters will be less inclined to go to the polls. The RCP final average of polls in 2012 underestimated Obama’s support by 3.2 points, which is significant because that was right at or beyond the margin of error in most cases, and certainly way beyond what should’ve been the presumable tighter aggregate MoE.

I really don’t think it likely that black turnout will be lower in 2016 than in 2008 or 2012. Minority voters in a democracy tend to be well aware of who their enemies are.