Nate Silver’s model has the chances of no-one having a majority of delegates at the end of primary season rising to 33%. A worry I have is that if Bernie has a plurality of delegates going into the convention, but loses the nomination in a brokered convention, many of his supporters won’t vote for the nominee. I think we would be better off nominating Sanders if he is leading at the end of the primaries. projects.fivethirtyeight.com