Western Pacific Typhoon Chanthu has blown up like Hurricane Humberto did in Texas, becoming a powerful cyclone from a random low in about twelve hours. It is predicted to pass north of The Philippines and forecast to hit Taiwan as a super typhoon.

Joint Typhoon Warning Center Track Chart for Chanthu

SUMMARY:
INITIAL POSITION: 16.1N 135.7E
INITIAL INTENSITY: 65 KTS
GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 764 NM SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB
MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 KTS
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 20 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) INDICATES THAT TY 19W HAS CONTINUED TO QUICKLY CONSOLIDATE AND HAS STARTED TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY. ANIMATED VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS VORTICAL HOT TOWERS (VHT) DEVELOPING AROUND THE CENTER OF THE SYSTEM AND ROTATING UPSHEAR, INDICATIVE OF THE ONSET OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION (RI).

ADDITIONALLY, A 070350Z AMSR2 COLORIZED 37GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWED A VERY SMALL MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE SURROUNDED BY A CYAN RING, PROVIDING ANOTHER INDICATOR OF NEAR-TERM RI. THE AMSR2 IMAGERY PROVIDED HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE INITIAL POSITION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 65 KNOTS, IS WELL ABOVE THE MAJORITY OF THE MULTI-AGENCY AND OBJECTIVE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES.

HOWEVER, GIVEN THE MULTIPLE INDICATORS OF THE ONSET OF RI, THE ANTICIPATED NEAR-TERM DEVELOPMENT OF AN EYE, AND THE COMPACT NATURE OF THE SYSTEM (LEADING TO POTENTIALLY LOW DVORAK ESTIMATES) PROVIDE HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE INITIAL INTENSITY. WHILE SMALL IN NATURE, THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO EXHIBIT RADIAL OUTFLOW, AND VERY LOW WIND SHEAR VALUES. THE SYSTEM LIES OVER VERY WARM (30C) AND HIGH OHC WATERS, PROVIDING AMPLE ENERGY TO SUPPORT THE RI.

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Prognostication reasoning: metoc.navy.mil