So as of right this instant, Paul and Cruz are “unofficial but obvious”. Santorum will be back. Bush (Jeb) appears to be setting up a run. I think there are more, actually, but that’s my pencil list of people most likely to get the nomination.

I really want to mention some of the also-runs. Huntsman, for example, will probably run - and has as much chance as he did in 2012. Rubio is obviously running but has destroyed his nomination chances by pushing (watered down) immigration reform. Pawlenty will try again, I think, and will be laughed off the stage early. again. I think Jindal will explore it but ultimately decide not to run. Kasich and Snyder may explore it as well, but it depends on if (and how severely) they lose in 2014.