For a few days now, I’ve been troubled by one aspect of the info available on covid19.healthdata.org
—namely, projections for # deaths. Compared to my own simplistic modeling, they seemed to be way too low, by a factor of about 20 to 40.

Now I understand why. Excerpt from healthdata.org

Length of the epidemic

Why do your estimates only go until July? Does that mean the outbreak will be over then?

Our model says that social distancing will likely lead to the end of the first wave of the epidemic by early June. The question of whether there will be a second wave of the epidemic will depend on what we do to avoid reintroducing COVID-19 into the population. By end the of the first wave of the epidemic, an estimated 97% of the population of the United States will still be susceptible to the disease, so avoiding reintroduction of COVID-19 through mass screening, contact tracing, and quarantine will be essential to avoid a second wave.

The italicized (and bolded by me) part is why. I’ve been assuming one wave, perhaps slowed/stretched out significantly by social-distancing, self-isolation, ramping up testing, etc.

In summary, the published # deaths estimates are (currently) for only about 3% of our population(s) infected in the near future, so read the numbers with that in mind.