I am always late when LGF wants to talk Iran. Since I am married to an Iranian and have been going there every couple of years I know what some there are thinking.
The mullahs are really not in charge that much now. It’s pretty much of a military dictatorship. It’s pretty hard to rise up and fight the regime when you know you are going to die. They want electricity because the electricity goes off and on and when it is 115F that makes everyone cranky. On a day to day basis you don’t think about Israel. They think about the US because they are actually to the right and left of them. They have alot of Afghans that have come from across the border, thanks to the war. Refugees is kind of painful when you barely have money to help yourself. They have lived alot with sanctions for a long time. But thank you, they will take that instead of bombs.
P.S. that COIN strategy that the US thinks is going to work in Afghanistan, its not. But that’s OK, it will keep the US busy for another 2 or 3 years.