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DC Metro Announces New Ridership Record for Stewart-Colbert Rally

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Love-Child of Cassandra and Sisyphus11/01/2010 4:29:14 pm PDT

The leading source of populist angst:

Feeble economic growth doesn’t matter much

An economy growing 2 percent a year might be tolerable in normal times. Today, it’s a near-disaster.

A growth rate of 5 percent or higher is needed to put a major dent in the nation’s 9.6 percent unemployment rate. Two reasons why that’s unlikely well into next year and maybe beyond:

Construction — both residential and commercial — collapsed last year. And it isn’t expected to regain its strength for years. Typically after recessions end, construction booms and powers a new economic expansion.

The recession that began in December 2007, after the housing bubble burst, became the Great Recession once the financial crisis erupted in September 2008. Economic recoveries that follow a financial crisis are typically sluggish. Banks usually take years to resume lending normally.

“To really get ‘Morning in America’ and get people feeling like jobs are really coming back, I would want to see something close to 5 percent” annual economic growth, says economist Josh Bivens of the Economic Policy Institute, referring to the iconic 1984 Reagan re-election ad.

That isn’t likely to happen soon. Macroeconomic Advisers doesn’t expect the labor market to recover all the lost jobs until at least 2013. Other economists say it could be 2018 or longer.

The government reported Friday that the nation’s gross domestic product, the broadest measure of goods and services produced, grew at an annual rate of 2 percent from July through September. GDP had risen at an annual rate of 1.7 percent in the second quarter.

Economists say it takes GDP growth of 3 percent a year just to keep the unemployment rate from rising as more Americans reach working age and immigrants enter the country. It would take 2 additional percentage points of growth for a year to reduce the unemployment rate by 1 point.

Further evidence of a tepid economy emerged Monday, one day before midterm elections that have pivoted on the nation’s financial health. Americans’ spending slowed in September, and their incomes fell. Still, manufacturing activity grew by the most in five months. And the weak construction industry showed a little life.

[…]

Though all eyes are on Tuesday’s election, it is on Wednesday when the big news will break - on that day the Fed will announce details of the Quantitative Easing II (QEII), the Fed’s plan to make sure that inflation stays at least above 2% and doesn’t slip any lower.