re: #186 ckkatz

As alway, ymmv. And you have shown yourself to be an astute observer. Further, far be it for me to defend Ari Melber.

However, his argument is that in Pa Biden is up 7.1 but Clinton was up 8.4 at this same point in the 2016. In Wisconsin Biden is up 5.5 but Clinton was up 6.7. In Michigan the numbers are Biden 6.7 but Clinton 10.7.

That said, one of the failings of the 2016 polls was in the determination of “Likely Voter”. In particular, the polls significantly underestimated “Likely Republican Voters”.

Maybe it means nothing, maybe it means everything. What it means to me is that this thing is not in the bag at this point.

edit: We got typos - Iin to in, Wisconsn to Wisconsin, zapped a superfluous ‘campaign’.

Regardless of current gaps, I haven’t seen anyone suggest that Biden is in a worse position. Just the opposite actually. There are basically no undecideds at this point.