I know I’m late to the discussion on the polls, but I just want to add my two cents: There’s a difference between “confidence” and “complacency.” If you want to stick with the sports analogies, then “complacency” is leaving the second quarter convinced there’s “no possible way” that the opposition can come back and they might as well throw the towel in, while “confidence” is where we are now: Going into the last quarter with a commanding lead while acknowledging that there’s still time on the clock for a “miracle.” Yeah, we have plenty of examples of the former in presidential races, candidates who seemed to be unstoppable only to collapse into a miserable loss. But not too many of the latter…and most of those you can point to have key differences from this election.

Think about it this way: No modern incumbent presidential candidate has failed to lead in the polls and been this far down going into the last 100 days and won convincingly. Joe Biden is not Mike Dukakis, Donald Trump is not George Bush Sr, and the “USA, USA, USA!” fever of the Cold War is not there.

tl;dr: “Complacency” is saying “Trump can’t win!,” while “confidence” is saying “Trump can’t win without a miracle!”