re: #173 Jay C

Now I don’t know enough about Canadian politics to make an informed analysis, but ISTM that the election had to be more than just a “beauty contest” - to me, the main takeaway (though one had to read between the lines) was the failure of the Canadian Right to make much headway outside of their normal base - and despite the Internet hype - the unpopularity of Trumpism Lite North Of The Border: but then, I guess there’s that “liberal media bias” in action…..

Okay, so here’s some Canadian Politics 101 for you:

Canadian Senators are not elected, they are appointed. As such, in a Federal election only the seats in the House of Commons (the Canadian equivalent of the House of Representatives) are up for grabs. There are 338 seats and thus you need 170 for a majority government.

There are five main parties that have run in every Canadian election for the past 20 years:

Liberal party = Self explanatory

Conservative party = Also Self explanatory

NDP = New Democratic Party. Further left than the Liberals

Green Party = Similar to the NDP but with the obvious environmental bent. A lot like the American version of the same.

Bloc Qubecois = This is an odd one as, despite the fact Canadian elections are FEDERAL, the Bloc runs candidates ONLY in Quebec. As such, they can never gain enough seats to elect a Prime Minister though I believe they could potentially be the official opposition if the math worked out a certain way. They have strong ties to the Quebec separatist movement.

Of these five parties, like in the United States, only politicians from the traditional Liberal and Conservative parties have ever become Prime Minister.

Here’s how Canada breaks down politically in terms of Geography:

Atlantic Canada = Typically trends Liberal, though sometimes NDP and Conservatives can pick up a few seats there.

Quebec = Usually decided between Liberals and the Bloc, but Conservatives can sometimes get seats there too.

Northern Canada (Yukon/NWT/Nunavut) = Typically tracks more Liberal/NDP

Manitoba/Saskatchewan/Alberta = Trend more conservative though Manitoba sometimes draws some Liberal support

B.C. - More Liberal than the other western provinces, especially the further west you go. Usually splits Conservative and NDP.

And then there’s Ontario - It’s the biggest Canadian version of a “Swing state” because while there are areas in Quebec and Atlantic Canada that can sometimes flip, Ontario contains over 60% of the Canadian population and thus has the largest number of seats in the House.

Southern Ontario typically tracks more Liberal though not always. Depending on sentiment Conservatives can sometimes make substantial inroads there. The NDP typically usually picks up a few seats in Ontario as well. The sparsely populated north of Ontario, as you might have guessed, typically tracks Conservative.

The bottom line to all this is that Canadian elections are won and lost primarily in Ontario and Quebec.

Here’s the map from last nights vote that illustrates what I am saying.

Color Key: Red - Liberal, Blue - Conservative, Orange - NDP, Light Blue - Bloc Quebcois