re: #242 KGxvi

He’s going to get 40% of the national popular vote; Biden is going to get 40%. That’s simply the floor in a two person race. The question is the remaining 20%. I seriously doubt we’re going to see nearly 6% voting for a third party candidate (for the record, that’s the highest third party vote since 1996). It’ll probably be closer to the traditional 1-2%. So, that leaves about 18-19% of the electorate potentially “up for grabs.” We also know that incumbent presidents end up with a percentage of the vote fairly close to their approval rating at election time.

Trump’s approval rating has spiked a bit (but seems to be dropping off already) due to the pandemic (rally around the flag, I suspect). But he’s been pretty consistently in the low 40s for much of the last two years - and before the midterms was under 40%.

I think he’s as close to an underdog any incumbent has been since at least Carter.

Have to agree. He just isn’t polling well. Could he still win re-election? Of course but I think the odds are against it right now. I really think the country is going to want something resembling a normal President after all this madness. I agree with your 40-40 rule. We’re not going to see an epic landslide either way as much as I would love to see Biden humiliate Trump.