There’s probably a good 10% of the population who just will not vote for a black guy. The GOP’s calculations all have that baked in. I don’t think they quite realize that the next Democratic candidate is not going to be a black guy. Now there might be 10% who just will not vote for a woman, too—but they’re not necessarily the same people. In particular, they’re not as geographically concentrated in the South. There could be some red states in play because of that.