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Seth Meyers Attic Sessions: Trump Contradicts Experts on Coronavirus Treatment After Months of Denial

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goddamnedfrank4/07/2020 2:26:48 pm PDT

re: #242 KGxvi

He’s going to get 40% of the national popular vote; Biden is going to get 40%. That’s simply the floor in a two person race. The question is the remaining 20%. I seriously doubt we’re going to see nearly 6% voting for a third party candidate (for the record, that’s the highest third party vote since 1996). It’ll probably be closer to the traditional 1-2%. So, that leaves about 18-19% of the electorate potentially “up for grabs.” We also know that incumbent presidents end up with a percentage of the vote fairly close to their approval rating at election time.

Trump’s approval rating has spiked a bit (but seems to be dropping off already) due to the pandemic (rally around the flag, I suspect). But he’s been pretty consistently in the low 40s for much of the last two years - and before the midterms was under 40%.

I think he’s as close to an underdog any incumbent has been since at least Carter.

He’s also declining psychologically and there are a lot of shoes left to drop, along with tens of thousands more American bodies.

For instance, I don’t see how the ratings agencies can avoid downgrading the US credit outlook before the election, with such massive added debt piled on top of revenue cuts.

What happens to the residential real estate market when that hits simultaneously with a glut of houses needing to be sold because their former owners died? What happens to the already moribund commercial real estate market when a ton of small businesses fold, unable to fulfill their leases?