re: #258 HappyWarrior

Well did you see how the midterms turned out? The presidential election will have higher turnout. I honestly won’t be surprised if Trump has the worst re-election loss since Carter.

Big midterm losses for the incumbent party don’t always carry over to the next Presidential election. The Dems were “shellacked” in ‘94 and ‘10, yet Clinton and Obama essentially cruised to re-election. Bush didn’t, however after the Dem sweep in ‘06, so maybe..

The one factor that has undone incumbent Presidents is a primary challenge. Carter was badly damaged by Kennedy’s challenge in 1980, and HW Bush was by Buchanan. Weld doesn’t look like much of a threat to Trump right now, but maybe he’ll emerge as the place for Republicans who just can’t take it anymore to go once the primaries begin. If Weld does well enough in Iowa, NH…that could doom Trump. It might even cause him to drop out, a la LBJ in ‘68.