re: #253 Olsonist

The trick in Syria is how to make the endgame more like Libya and less like Egypt. Anything will be difficult because the NeoSovs, China and Iran have Assads back.

BTW, Russia could give a fuck what anyone thinks. It’s money to them. Assad is a paying customer. But while they are on the UN Security Council they aren’t in NATO.

And the other trick is how to get Turkey involved. Turkey turned down some offered gifts from the Bush administration, wanting nothing to do with the inevitable and messy Iraqi endgame. Perhaps the Arab League, NATO and Obama can work some magic. You’d need the Turkish military to stand down the Syrian army.

Difficulty level: 9.

I think this endgame will be different than either. Assad is eventually toast. Syria is the supplier to the Hezbollah Shiia in Lebanon, but Iran can no longer supply arms directly because Iraq is in the way. (Hmmm).

The chaos is spreading, and I don’t believe anyone knows how this will end. The Admin knows this, and the pressure on the Iranian mullahs is getting excruciating. The next six months, where they are caught between weapons development and no income, will squeeze them like grapes in a press.

We live in interesting times.