re: #268 Dr Lizardo

An excellent explanation. Then there is a chance that because Trump is so utterly repellent, he exerts a serious demotivating factor on GOP voters and if the Democrats have a solid GOTV effort and ground game, then the GOP could indeed lose the House as well as the Senate (provided the GOP doesn’t rapidly counter to focus on the down ticket races in order to save their position).

If I’m reading Sam Wang’s chart correctly, the Democrats have to win by 6 points overall to get an evenly-divided house. So 53/47 to get 50/50. In 2014, Dems won 51.2/48.8 but the seats went ~54/46 the other way. It looks like the generic Congressional poll is within a point of that 6-point lead right now….

Edited to subtract: Something stupid.