re: #258 Kosh’s Shadow

I wrote something similar to a lizard making the same argument and got down dinged for it.
Actually, I had said we could predict the average temperature 6 months away more accurately than the temperature 6 days away.

Yeah, same here. This link goes deeper into climate models. It’s written for laymen but here is an interesting quote:
gristmill.grist.org
(the following is from the link, not written by me)

Putting global surface temperatures aside, there are some other significant model predictions made and confirmed:

* models predict that surface warming should be accompanied by cooling of the stratosphere, and this has indeed been observed;
* models have long predicted warming of the lower, mid, and upper troposphere, even while satellite readings seemed to disagree — but it turns out the satellite analysis was full of errors and on correction, this warming has been observed;
* models predict warming of ocean surface waters, as is now observed;
* models predict an energy imbalance between incoming sunlight and outgoing infrared radiation, which has been detected;
* models predict sharp and short-lived cooling of a few tenths of a degree in the event of large volcanic eruptions, and Mount Pinatubo confirmed this;
* models predict an amplification of warming trends in the Arctic region, and this is indeed happening;
* and finally, to get back to where we started, models predict continuing and accelerating warming of the surface, and so far they are correct.