re: #246 Wendell Zurkowitz ((slave to the waffle light))

And recall that one reason the Scottish independence referendum failed was over the uncertainty, and the prospect of being left stranded outside the EU with no guarantee of being taken back in as a separate state (Spain would not want to set a precedent for Catalonia)

There is an important difference with the situation in Spain. The constitution Spain adopted post-Franco specifically names the various constituent parts of Spain, including Catalonia, as part of Spain. Therefore, barring a constitutional amendment- which the rest of Spain would not support, any moves by Catalonia to secede would be unconstitutional. However in the UK, the Union of Parliaments of 1707 is a bilateral agreement, from which either side can leave. Technically, Scotland could just declare independence and that would be legal. However it’s generally agreed that there would have to be a popular mandate for this.

Now, there is a popular mandate for Independence in Catalonia (There was a referendum not so long ago, and the Catalonian government declared independence as a result), but it collides with the Spanish constitution. The EU has shown that it’s willing to take the side of Spain over Catalonia, so I expect Spain are less worried now about Scottish independence setting a precedent for Spain, but they might still be wary of pushing things.