I often see a 2016-based view of 2020 in my replies. They take Trump ‘16 support, and then say Dems can win with incremental changes like higher black turnout or a better candidate.
I don’t think that assumption works, in part bc Trump is also stronger than he was in ‘16

— Nate Cohn (@Nate_Cohn) August 7, 2019

If you’re a Dem, for instance, who thinks all you need to do is boost black turnout to something closer to ‘12, I would caution that this may no longer be what it takes to win. It’s not ‘16 anymore.

— Nate Cohn (@Nate_Cohn) August 7, 2019

We’ve already gone over the issues with the Times. But if this is any sort of close, then I feel like we’re already horrifically broken as a country and may never come back.