I doubt whether it has much potential bearing on American politics, but Canadian politics offers a somewhat historical example of what can a happen when a conservative movement splits apart.

After the Progressive Conservative (also known as the Tories) party was all but obliterated in the 1993 election (that’s not an exaggeration, they came away with only TWO seats, far less than needed even for official party status) there were many who doubted they’d ever be relevant again and backers fled the party in droves.

Eventually this led to the morphing of the Reform party (a conservative 3rd party) into the Canadian Alliance, which included elements from both the Reform and PC side. Despite the formation of the Alliance Party, the PCs/Tories limped on. As a result, the conservative vote was routinely split in Federal Elections and the Liberals were able to stay in power for 13 consecutive years.

What finally changed the tide?

Well, aside from damage the Liberal party did to itself (by way of a scandal), the other major development was that the PC/Tories and Canadian Alliance finally agreed to kiss and make up and become the Conservative Party of Canada.

They regained power in 2006 and still hold it today.

So it seems to me that this Tea Party Republican/Rove Republican split is a natural part of the process the GOP will have to undergo in order to emerge once again as a united, viable party in American politics.