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Fractal Palm Against Sky

297
lostlakehiker9/22/2011 8:15:58 am PDT

re: #17 windsagio

For a number of reasons polls have a fairly strong conservative bias, and are kind of nonpredictive at this point anyways.

P’ll put it up now, Its gonna be Romney/Obama, O wins.

If you give me even odds on a bet, yes or no, Romney wins the nomination and then Obama wins the general election, I’ll take it. I have two ways to win the bet—-Romney doesn’t get the nomination, or he does win the general election.

But you’re right about polls—-polls reflect current reality, not future reality, they don’t reflect what people will actually do, only what they say they’ll do, and they don’t reflect what people in general would say, only what those who will talk at all will say.

And all that’s only if you can design a way to reach a random sample of voters.