re: #2 Destro

Libyan elected gov is composed of exiles at least in the top ranks. That means, based on past such examples (Iraq, Afghanistan) they have little support on the ground. And based on reporting on Libya, politics there is tribal and local.

So, while I hope for the best, I think it was a mistake to arm groups we knew were linked to militant Islamists and we will see this as another case of blowback. I hope I am wrong.

Lucky you. You are wrong. It wasn’t a mistake.

(1) You can’t go too far wrong standing on the side of the angels. Unless a policy is hopelessly impractical (e.g. for Britain to have aided Finland fend off Russia’s Winter War attack of 1940) it can’t be that bad an idea to do the right thing.

(2) Backing Gaddafi and helping him put down the rebellion would have been outrageous. So, what were our remaining options? Keep in mind that the chaos was spilling over into Italy and the rest of Europe. Aha: either back the rebels, or sit back and watch the fire spread.

(3) No matter how badly things now go in Libya, settling old scores with long standing implacable enemies puts future big frogs in small ponds on notice.

So now we pay the price. There were no sunny-side-up options on the table. Every choice came with a price. The price of this choice was high. The prices of the other choices would have been far higher.