re: #309 medaura18586

I guess no one here dares to touch that with a ten-foot pole… Steyn writes for Commentary, so I’ll refrain from making my opinion known at this point.

Let me just rush in here.

I don’t see where Guftafs gets off citing Steyn’s “dubious demographical projections that really are of no use (or interest) to anyone”.
First off, demographics is one of the easier problems in prediction. If youo take all of the kids who are five years old within a given population, then I *guarantee* that ten years later you will have a maximum of that same number of fifteen year-olds, and an overwhelming likelihood of having a few percent fewer than the first number. And so on. There’s not much dubious about it, unless you want to argue the 1.2 tipping point. On that I don’t know, but I haven’t done my homework on it, and it sounds like he has. I’m willing to take that one at face value.
And “no interest to anyone?” Uh, let me know when you make a point, Guftafs. I’ll be happy to respond.
I hadn’t even read Steyn’s book when I started telling my friends that if they ever wanted to see France, they had better go soon. France will likely soon (relatively soon) be a very different place than we have understood it to be.
He does get a bit Johnny one-note, and I think that he gets burned precisely because he’s playing with fire. Frankly, I think he may have been a bit radicalized by his “trial” (with no real law behind it but very real punishments) in Canada under the Human Rights Board or whatever sham gaggle that was. Nobody expects the Canadian Inquisition! But it’s there.
So I like Mark Steyn. Sometimes I wince when he pops off, but that’s pretty rare, and his talent is phenomenal. He is usually right-on with his analysis, and when he’s not, Hugh or somebody will call him on it. I’ve read his book, I read his columns when I get a chance, and I eagerly await Thursdays, when he visits on Hugh Hewitt.