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I have confidence that Kim Jong Un will honor the contract we signed &, even more importantly, our handshake. We agreed to the denuclearization of North Korea. China, on the other hand, may be exerting negative pressure on a deal because of our posture on Chinese Trade-Hope Not!
— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) July 9, 2018
As many North Korea experts warned, Trump entered last month’s Singapore summit with Kim with two misimpressions.
First, Trump believed his “maximum pressure” campaign meant that he had Kim over a barrel, ready to make big nuclear concessions. 2/— Colin Kahl (@ColinKahl) July 9, 2018
Final 20 tweets behind the clicky
So Kim was happy to freeze his program in place and play the long game to weaken the US position on the Peninsula and in Asia more broadly (starting with a freeze on U.S. military exercises), a goal Kim knew the Chinese would support. 4/
— Colin Kahl (@ColinKahl) July 9, 2018
Kim even got Trump to mimic North Korean propaganda by describing US military exercises with our South Korean ally as “war games” that are “expensive” and “provocative.” (Another position China has long held.) 6/
— Colin Kahl (@ColinKahl) July 9, 2018
Just landed - a long trip, but everybody can now feel much safer than the day I took office. There is no longer a Nuclear Threat from North Korea. Meeting with Kim Jong Un was an interesting and very positive experience. North Korea has great potential for the future!
— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) June 13, 2018
But the Pompeo visit to Pyongyang revealed two chasms that North Korea experts warned about.
The first chasm remains longstanding differences in how the key word “denuclearization” is interpreted, which the vague summit statement did nothing to clarify. 8/— Colin Kahl (@ColinKahl) July 9, 2018
North Korea, however, interprets denuclearization as an obligation for all parties on the Korean Peninsula, including the United States, thereby seeing its commitment as part of a long-term, multiparty, reciprocal move toward disarmament that likely never culminates. 10/
— Colin Kahl (@ColinKahl) July 9, 2018
Team Trump wants a North Korean declaration of all nuclear, WMD, & missile capabilities; a roadmap, timetable, & verification mechanism for denuclearization; and substantial dismantling—all BEFORE the US offers a peace treaty or economic concessions. 12/
— Colin Kahl (@ColinKahl) July 9, 2018
This would be followed by a reciprocal, step-by-step process (which China & South Korea support) where every move the North makes is met by additional US security assurances, the relaxation of sanctions, and economic aid. 14/
— Colin Kahl (@ColinKahl) July 9, 2018
North Korea’s desired endstate for talks has now come into view: an early peace treaty that puts pressure on US troops to leave South Korea (something Trump supports) in exchange for concessions on the North’s ICBM capacity (which is all Trump really cares about). 16/
— Colin Kahl (@ColinKahl) July 9, 2018
Gaining clarity on denuclearization & sequencing are precisely the kinds of issues that months- or years-long talks at the working level aim to address BEFORE leaders meet.
But Trump thought he knew better. And he walked into the very trap experts warned about. 18/— Colin Kahl (@ColinKahl) July 9, 2018
As lower-level diplomats now meet to do the actual work of addressing the huge chasms that remain, any perceived step back from these positions now creates higher political costs for both Trump and Kim, making agreement more difficult and a diplomatic breakdown more likely. 20/
— Colin Kahl (@ColinKahl) July 9, 2018
…Trump can play hard ball, attempt to blame China, & risk a diplomatic collapse with no Plan B (given that reconstituting “maximum pressure” will be nearly impossible at this stage) other than a cataclysmic war. 22/22
— Colin Kahl (@ColinKahl) July 9, 2018
