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And Now, Sparks With an Ode to the Noble "Lawnmower"

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Dangerman8/06/2020 9:52:12 am PDT

re: #320 NetworkKed

270toWin uses the “expert” projections (Cook Political Report, etc.) rather than polls for their default map. It makes it lag a lot compared to straight polling data. That’s not entirely bad, but also tends to be more overbaked political “common sense” than facts as they stand.

It’s something of the same animal as how 538 shades its projections - the full model bakes in so much prior weighting/reversion to mean that it doesn’t represent current reality… but that doesn’t make it wrong either, just a different take that is useful in its own way.

fwiw
electoral-vote.com (my fave) goes the other route
polls only
no ‘expert’ thumbs on the scale

polling faq