The hospital projections here: covid19.healthdata.org

… already look too conservative for some places. Example: projects Louisiana to have 39 deaths today, so far the count is 54, above the error bar on their estimate.

For the US today, the estimate is in the range of 638-781 with a most likely value of 719. The US count today is already at 709 (on UTC time)- after the day is over we’ll have a better count of today.

There will be a lot of daily variation, part of the natural variation in not only infections and deaths but the reporting system.

Still, I think modelers may have presumed Americans will follow lockdown orders more than is actually happening. I was at the grocery store this afternoon, and it seemed like the busiest it has been since state-wide lockdown started (on 19 Mar.) People will get antsy, and by next weekend I wonder how many people will just ignore shelter-at-home advice?