BTW, Nate Cohn and Nate Silver both say that they don’t see any increase in how likely GOP voters are to vote, relative to before Kavanaugh.

One thing that is easier for us to judge is whether the GOP is likelier to turnout. We have absolutely zero increase in GOP intention to turnout, relative to Dems, since the hearing
We do have a slight overall uptick though

— Nate Cohn (@Nate_Cohn) October 3, 2018

The Right always votes. It’s the Left that tends not to show up. It’s an article of faith on the Right that Romney lost because Conservatives didn’t show up at the polls, but Im not sure there’s data to back that up. If they were going to show up anyway, increased enthusiasm isn’t gonna do much.