re: #331 Big Beautiful Door

Looking at 538’s nowcast model, Clinton could win a massive landslide, as states no Democrat has won in decades are coming into play. This could lead to a Democratic takeover of Congress as well.

I notice the NowCast is at 91.6/8.4. Don’t know how accurate that is, but it’s cheering me up a little.

Looking at the state-by-state, though—well, I’ll only speak to Washington, since I live here. Their three models give Trump a 6.0, 6.2, and 1.4% chance of winning WA. There is a 0% chance of Trump winning WA—absolutely zero.

I don’t know how they add up these probabilities, but I’m thinking Gaussian distribution with its long tails doesn’t work in this application. I have no alternative to suggest—just an observation.