Live Video: President Obama Speaks in Bristow, VA

goddamnedfrank11/03/2012 8:25:08 pm PDT

re: #27 HappyWarrior

What amuses me is the spin that Republican turnout is going to be out an incredible high while Democratic turnout will be an equally incredible low. Wishful thinking if you ask me. And I do think there’s a possibility that Obama’s support could be under-polled.

The thing about voting is that it’s totally binary, either you do it or you don’t, doesn’t matter how enthusiastic you are. Likely voter models are important, but the way some pollsters construct them is intrinsically flawed.

Gallup’s model assumes that if this is your first election, or if you’ve moved to a new precinct and don’t know where your polling location is that you’re aren’t going to vote. Those people never make it into Gallup’s likely voter model, even if they tell Gallup that they’ve already voted via absentee ballot.