re: #345 NO SMOCKING GUN!

And that is Bitcofer’s theory of negative partisanship. There isn’t a big bloc of moderate swing voters that Bernie will turn off; just Democratic voters energized to vote against Trump, regardless of the nominee.

politico.com
Once you know the shape of the electorate, she argues, you can pretty much tell how that electorate is going to vote. And the shape of the electorate in 2018, and 2020, for that matter, was determined on the night of November 8, 2016. The new electorate, as she forecasts it, is made up mostly of people who want a president named anything but Donald Trump, competing with another group that fears ruin should anyone but Donald Trump be president.