re: #354 Sir John Barron

I was hopeful about Ohio until recently. The Comey letter probably put the nail in the coffin for those two states, if there was any chance at all there. About Iowa, Mike freaking Dukakis won Iowa in 1988. So, the demographic changes that are helping Dems in some places (mostly the upper South and Hispanic West) are being balanced out by shifts elsewhere (White Mid-West).

Hell Dukakis won West Virginia and while HW Bush won PA, Dukakis won in Western Pa whereas Obama and likely Clinton will likely only win in Allegheny County and struggle in the Pittsburgh burbs and beyond. It’s unfortunate since this is actually my family’s ancestral hometurf but the white midwest has become fertile Republican ground as Republicans take advantage of resentments about trade and immigration. Now the good news is the Dems are making big gains in areas like the upper South and West that are gaining population while these areas are losing population. I also don’t see any Republican candidate in the near future having Trump’s appeal to the white working class like he has either.