Trevor Noah: Ill-Fated Premature Coronavirus Victory Laps

garzooma7/15/2020 9:55:30 am PDT

re: #360 John Hughes

Well, politifact claims that’s false.

But I think they’re bending over backwards to do it. They sat that the current year’s figures count all causes on the death certificate, where historical data only give the underlying cause of death.

The historical data shows about 918 deaths a year from pneumonia. So far this year it’s 1,762 deaths from COVID-19 and 5,185 from pneumonia. So, if the underlying pneumonia rate was unchanged that’d be (ignoring the fact that we’re nowhere near the end of the year) about 918 deaths from “normal” pneumonia, 1,762 deaths from covid-19 and 2,505 deaths from some mysterious pneumonia that came from nowhere.

Politifact: mostly bollocks.

Well put. Politifact’s explanation is off.

One nit — from the Politifact article, the 918 deaths are for “the same time period”, i.e. not per year.