re: #351 Cheechako

Rant On: (please excuse the language)

What a fuckin’ shitty day. Murkowsky got bribed to vote for the Tax Bill. From what i’ve seen, all the GOP had to do was toss her the “Open ANWR to Drilling” bait and she took it.

Drilling ANWR is not going to solve the fiscal situation up here in Alaska. There’s just too much cheaper oil on the market from elsewhere to make Alaska oil affordable. This State is already in dire financial straights. Our Legislature just completed their 4th special session and did nothing towards solving the financial problems. Just kicked the can down the road.

In 2008 I thought retiring and staying in Alaska was a good choice for all the tax situation but all the advantages are slowly disappearing. The City has reduced our senor sales tax exemption, the State has reduced by half our Permanent Fund Distribution, and it looks like we will eventually have an Income Tax or State-wide sales tax.

Rant Off/

So what to do? If/when this tax bill passes, I expect the stock market to sink like a submarine. Sure the rich corporations will have their super-dooper tax breaks but their customers will not be able to afford any of their products.

Question for all. If you have some small investments in stock market mutual funds should you stay or move into bond funds? Can the companies in the S&P maintain their current profits if they have no customers?

Right now I’m thinking we’re heading into a depression that will make the ‘30’s a walk in the park.

I don’t think that the impact on the stock market will be that immediate. Negative impacts on the lower and middle class are loaded into future years after the offsetting tax cuts disappear. From what I’ve read, Wall Street Analysts (men and women who actually study and know shit as opposed to lobbyist and PR hacks) suggest the most likely route to a recession is through the impact on housing prices which would be more immediate.

The mortgage and property tax exemptions being removed by the elimination of SALT should have a fairly immediate impact on housing prices - it’s going to make owning a home more expensive, which should drive down prices. The elimination of SALT also takes away state and local tax exemptions, which will further stress people in states that collect revenue in this way. The result could be another housing crisis.