re: #381 Sir John Barron

I think cultural issues have been important for a while, that is, things like abortion, patriotism, etc.

But the election of a Black president, the rapid and dramatic shift towards gay rights and gay marriage, coupled with the continuing economic decline in some pockets of the heartland, has magnified the racial and cultural resentment on the part of some. Put it another way, while cultural issues have always mattered, the stakes have gotten higher.

Cultural issues have been important since Reagan, but declining. The only time they tilted the election was when GOP ratfuckers put all those anti-SSM initiatives on state ballots in 2004. My personal “average of the polls +2 points D” metric broke. I thought I had to discard it, but in 2012 “average of the polls +3.2 D” is how it turned out.

2004 was a one-time thing. That fresh cohort of troglodytes is baked-in now. Plus, Right-wing disinformation pollsters like Rasmussen are screwing up the average worse every election. Hillary’s ahead 5 or 6 in the polls—I suspect that means 9 or 10 in reality.

Of course I could be fooled again…but by Trump?