Palin is a fun target but the real news here is that the election won’t be a slam dunk for the president.

His reelection hinges on the Republican primaries. If Republicans don’t get their act together and cator to the extra right wing they will lose. However, if they are more flexible, they have a good shot.

Right?

Well the problem with this line of thougt is that that’s exactly the calculus that took place last time and got McCain nominated and it didn’t yield a win. It also made McCain less appealing because he had to contort to appease the more conservative side of the party.

I have a feeling many in the republican party don’t want another McCain situaition. But who is the serious “true” conservative candidate? That candidate has yet to show up, so it’s very hard to poll or predict at his point.

One thing is clear, democrats should not get overconfident.