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As Ohio Counts, So Waits the Nation

4
Locker11/05/2012 6:03:25 pm PST

That’s two articles today which I would normally never see or read. Ok “skimmed” but the Henry Olsen one I read, even though I had bad twinges which nearly stopped me in my tracks.

Race is a trigger word for both “sides” but in different ways. On the left, based solely on my personal experience, using race in any way, shape or form is probably racist. That’s the assumption. Not saying it’s truth, it’s just the ultra-sensitive, guilty, sorry, wanting to help thing that we do.

When I reach the point in the article where Mr Olsen stated he was going to use race to determine the election results my first mental reaction was:

Here we go, more of this “People only vote for him because he’s black”, thing.

That I even read one more word after reading the following quote is so unlikely that I can’t even describe it. Hypersensitivity can be “that bad” where you can ignore context that directly surrounds the trigger word and your reaction ignores it.

I could try to cut through this Gordian knot, but ultimately I decided to transcend the whole argument entirely. I am basing my forecast on a factor I believe to be much more stable and hence less subject to partisan shading or statistical variation: race.

I did continue into the article and realized it my assumption was false. The author was discussing the race of the voters as related to polling numbers and using that model to do predictions. Predictions which seem to result in numbers which seem very, very similar to Nate Silver’s over at FiveThirtyEight blog.

I enjoyed reading the article and I learned a lot, chiefly that it’s always good to stretch once in a while. Probably a lot more than once in a while.

Thank you.