re: #35 Mike Lamb

Its hard to really account for them at all. Italy put in some measures early that were not enough, with too many people violating them, then cracked down when things got much worse. The fleeing of the people from the North after it was leaked that there would be a quarantine really didn’t help - fear does what it does. Why they have such high fatality’s vs France, Germany or elsewhere is unclear.

MS and Florida’s decisions to not shut down things will only delay what needs to be done. The spread will continue. Even if they are not testing (not sure how much Florida is) a percentage of people (10-20% depending on the demographic) will seek medical attention. Usually first symptoms (~90% fever) occur 4-5 days on average. Following this, those that do get worse will have trouble breathing 8-9 days later. They will seek medical attention and then its much harder to not count them as either a case or when there is not ICU/ventilator as a death.

I’ve heard FL has a reasonable amount of beds and has been getting all they requested from Trump, so they may fare better on their capacity. The amount of older individuals and the lack of controls now will work against them.