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OK Everybody, Back on Your Heads: Time for the 2nd Presidential Debate Shitshow

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ipsos10/22/2020 7:59:13 pm PDT

re: #413 LeftyRambles2413 (HappyWarrior)

Yeah even if it wasn’t a disaster, he had to add to his support. No one is going from Biden to Trump tonight.

I was CL’d on this earlier today, so I’ll repeat it here just as I’m probably about to get CL’d again:

For all the Cletus Safari-ing going on in some media corners, nobody has turned up any evidence of voters going to Trump at this point.

We know there are reasonable numbers of Trump 2016 > Biden 2020 voters out there, as well as true-believer Trump 2016 > Trump 2020 voters, Clinton 2016 > Biden 2020 voters and (we hope) nobody 2016 > Biden 2020 voters in fair numbers.

But Clinton 2016 > Trump 2020 isn’t a species of voter that appears to exist. Which is really, really bad news for a guy who “won” by only 70,000 votes in three swing states last time. (There are probably enough Trump 2016 > dead 2020 votes in those three states to more than wipe that “lead” out, if you do the math.)