re: #423 i(m)p(each)sos

I was CL’d on this earlier today, so I’ll repeat it here just as I’m probably about to get CL’d again:

For all the Cletus Safari-ing going on in some media corners, nobody has turned up any evidence of voters going to Trump at this point.

We know there are reasonable numbers of Trump 2016 > Biden 2020 voters out there, as well as true-believer Trump 2016 > Trump 2020 voters, Clinton 2016 > Biden 2020 voters and (we hope) nobody 2016 > Biden 2020 voters in fair numbers.

But Clinton 2016 > Trump 2020 isn’t a species of voter that appears to exist. Which is really, really bad news for a guy who “won” by only 70,000 votes in three swing states last time. (There are probably enough Trump 2016 > dead 2020 votes in those three states to more than wipe that “lead” out, if you do the math.)

That’s why I’ve been bullish on Biden. Trump hasn’t made any gains with any demographics that could tip the election in his favor. If anything he’s lost a lot in key states.