re: #457 JC1

I think that the best data we have is data from South Korea and NYC. Antibody tests suggest that around 20% of NYC residents have had COVID19, and a bit over .25% of NYC population died; extrapolating from this gets up to around a 1.25% mortality rate. Maybe a bit higher since deaths probably lag a bit more than antibodies.

South Korea did extensive initial contact tracing and testing. They should have far fewer unknown cases than other countries. They’re showing a 2.38% death rate overall, with the vast majority in those over over 50.

Assuming that hospitals don’t become overwhelmed, I would wager good money that the overall mortality rate will be between 1.2 and 2%; skewed very heavily to those over 50.

According to South Korea’s data, those over 70 have a 10%+ IFR

I remain a little skeptical about antibody tests because so many are apparently not reliable. The 1-2% overall mortality seems reasonable and definitely consistent with Diamond Princess.