re: #487 Big Beautiful Door

I know there has been a lot of bagging on Nate Silver here, but after reading this article he just posted, I can’t see the argument that Trump has a zero or nearly zero chance of winning. About one-chance-in-three seems about right to me, as discomfiting as that is.

Trump has a chance of winning that is not zero, but it’s not 1 in 3 either.