The Specter situation is reminiscent of what happened in Virginia in 2008. The Republican party chose a fairly unpopular and very conservative candidate (Jim Gilmore) over a more moderate candidate (Tom Davis) and got stomped by Mark Warner, a moderate Dem, in the contest over an open Senate seat.

If, as expected, Toomey is chosen as the Republican candidate in PA in 2010, he’ll be running against the moderate (and well-known) Specter in a Dem-leaning state.