re: #491 lawhawk

The Senate map doesn’t favor the Democrats given that this class has more Democrats up for reelection/election than GOPers. But getting to 51 is possible.

As you correctly note, it takes more than 51 to get impeachment.

And this GOP is that craven that they’ll block removal on purely partisan lines even if the facts and evidence supports removal and prosecution for multiple felonies.

I suppose one of the central questions is how will the Republicans respond to being in the minority in one or both Houses? It also depends on how much further Trump spirals between now and then and how the big GOP donors react - for example, I’m guessing the Koch brothers probably aren’t on board with tariffs and a trade war. And as someone mentioned above, the 2020 map has lots of Republicans up in the Senate (though in mostly favorable races), so a combination of erratic behavior, trade wars, and a deeply unpopular president could lead some of them to save themselves over an interloper who has no real loyalty to the party.

There’s a lot of moving parts here, and it’s hard to game it out without controlling for some issues or otherwise making assumptions.