538’s generic ballot shows the Dems holding a slight lead, as they have all year. But they do point out that the tide usually turns against the President’s party in midterms, usually in big numbers.

There are often early signs this will happen in the early special and off off year elections. In ‘09, Chris Christie was first elected, and Scott Brown was elected to finish Ted Kennedy’s term early in ‘10 in deep blue Mass. In ‘18, Jon Ossof greatly outperformed Trump in a congressional special election even though he lost, and this happened several times before the ‘18 midterms.

Having said all this, I am ever so slightly optimistic that Newsom’s crushing victory in the Cali recall might be a good sign for Dems heading into the ‘22 midterms. I was pretty sure Newsom would winning, but by a margin much less than his first victory in ‘18, or less than Biden’s victory there in ‘20. But the way he ran Larry Elder.ofd the floor was very encouraging, especially with the way Cali voters were fired up about it.

So with the GOP having sold its soul to the twice impeached and thoroughly disgraced Trump, the Dems *might* have success next year if they tie the GOP to Trump, and all the radicalism that entails, as Newsom did with Elder - particularly when it comes to Covid mitigation. Stressing voter suppression and the TX abortion law would help too.

Strong emphasis on “might.”

fivethirtyeight.com