re: #527 Belafon

That only holds true if the campaigns aren’t trying to grow the electorate. Which, really, seems to be Biden’s weakness (as it were). He doesn’t really have constituencies that would strengthen his numbers if the electorate was expanded. Warren definitely has room for growth (Sanders, I still believe, has a fairly hard ceiling around 20%).

It’s the AOC factor. If the electorate in her district was static, she’d never have come close to winning the primary. But she and her campaign were smart enough to change the electorate. Obama did the same thing in Iowa in 2008 - it’s why so few saw his win coming - he changed the electorate and it didn’t match the models.

The question is whether any Democratic candidate is thinking that way this time around.